Chen Guangcheng’s case has highlighted shortcomings in the Chinese Communist party’s business-as-usual approach. Photograph: AP
A cascade of dramatic scandals triggered by a blind Chinese activist and a dead British businessman have created a pivotal moment for reform or repression by the Chinese Communist party, according to long-term observers of politics in Beijing.
Would-be modernisers, led by premier Wen Jiabao, have their best opportunity since 1989 to press for greater transparency, accountability and rule by law, but they will have to overcome the ingrained conservatism of rivals who have endorsed secrecy and violence to ensure the continuation of rule by party.
Normally stodgy and secretive, the Chinese political script has been ripped up this year by a series of unexpected events that would appear implausible even in a novel by Graham Greene or John Grisham.
Last week’s audacious escape by blind civil rights activist Chen Guangcheng from years of house arrest is the latest twist in a tale that looks set to run all the way through to a Communist party congress in the autumn, when a new generation of leaders will take the helm of the world’s most populous nation and second biggest economy.
Chen’s flight and unconfirmed reports that he is now under US diplomatic protection follow an asylum bid by a top police chief, allegations of rampant corruption and rival wiretapping inside the Communist aristocracy, and the purging of party princeling Bo Xilai, who had been expected to enter the inner sanctum of the politburo until his wife was accused of poisoning British businessman Neil Heywood.
Though very different, these are all catalysts at a time of change – and not just in China. The latest events have even had an impact on the US presidential election campaign, when the Republican frontrunner Mitt Romney called on Barack Obama to protect Chen Guangcheng.
But the most significant fallout will be in China’s internal politics, where recent remarkable events have highlighted the shortcomings of a business-as-usual approach.
Until Chen fled, the local government in Linyi, in Shandong province, had been punishing a man and his family for more than six years because he exposed an illegal system of forced abortions and then became a central figure in the campaign for civil rights in China.
He has subsequently released a video in which he details his maltreatment and calls on Wen to investigate the case.
The authorities have yet to respond publicly. But veteran China watchers say the issue strikes at longstanding political fault lines.
“This should be a pivotal point in the struggle between Chinese reformers and anti-reform vested interests. Chen Guangcheng is not an anti-Communist dissident. His case is simply about whether there is any real law in China. I see it as a struggle between those who want rule of law and those who are content with China’s feudal tradition in which local authorities can defy the country’s laws and the central authority allows this, as long as it doesn’t threaten their rule,” said Sidney Rittenberg, whose association with the Communist party dates back to his time as an adviser to Mao Zedong in the 1940s.
Rittenberg said the central government should “clean out” the Linyi officials responsible for Chen’s treatment. “It is time for all decent people to take a stand for the issues of land, peace, and democracy,” he said.
But punishing local officials will embarrass the politburo heavyweights, such as security chief Zhou Yongkang, who approved the handling of Chen’s case.
In 2007, the central authorities sent an inspection team to report on the trial in which Chen was sentenced to four years in jail for “disrupting traffic” and causing a public disturbance. When Chen was released in 2010, he was put under extrajudicial house arrest.
According to Nicholas Bequelin of Human Rights Watch, this was again done at the behest of central leaders.
“The state security bureau told the Linyi authorities that they had to neutralise Chen but not re-arrest him lest it create more international outcry,” said Bequelin, who said the authorities were increasingly using illegal measures because the old methods of information management have been incapacitated by the spread of microblogs.
“The security apparatus is not able to control and prevent critics and dissidents the way it was before. To make up for this erosion of social control, increasingly unlawful methods are being deployed against activists, including disappearance and torture, so as to silence them and intimidate others,” he said.
The key question raised by Chen’s escape – and the US-China negotiations said to be taking place about his future – is whether the Chinese authorities will choose to clamp down harder or to change.
That debate has the potential to split the party as it did in 1989, when student protests in Tiananmen Square prompted a face-off between reformers and hardliners in the politburo.
Hardliners have had the initiative ever since, but this year’s events have opened up new possibilities. The state security apparatus is controlled by Zhou Yongkang, who has already been weakened by the fall of his ally Bo Xilai and – now aged 69 – is due for retirement at the upcoming congress. This is an opportunity for prime minister Wen Jiabao, who has long talked about the need for political reform, but previously appeared powerless to do anything about it.
Dali Yang, professor of political science at the University of Chicago, said the two recent cases have given Wen ammunition to argue that current policies intended to maintain stability – particularly the excessive use of force – are counterproductive. Whether he takes the risk to push for change, however, remains to be seen.
“There are growing numbers of people who feel China has made scant progress on the rule of rule in recent years. These cases have stimulated discussion on the need for political/legal reforms. Coupled with the leadership transition, they may turn out to be the pivotal cases but it’s still too early to tell. The party’s instinct is to retain control,” said Yang.
The control instinct appeared strong at the weekend, when police rounded up several of Chen’s family and supporters, who could easily become victims of retribution or bargaining chips if the Chinese government decides to take a hard line. Two of them – Hu Jia and Guo Yushan – have been released – but there are still concerns for the escapee’s cousin, Chen Kegui and the activist who helped him, He Peirong.
State media have yet to comment on the case. This may be because negotiations with the US are still under way and the timing is sensitive, ahead of a high-level bilateral economic and political dialogue in Beijing later this week that will be attended by the US secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, and treasury secretary Timothy Geithner.
But the lack of a clear signal has prompted speculation and frustration that the central leadership is unable to agree on how to handle this case – and the wider direction of reform in China.
The sense of frustration was apparent in Study Times, the influential newspaper of the Central Party School. In a comment piece headlined “The biggest danger facing reform is the lack of a driving force”, it called for a wider public debate about the country’s future.
“Without open and rational discussion, reforms will either be fake or imposed, which means they cannot win the support and recognition of society,” it said.
President Hu Jintao has tended until now to side with conservatives, who emphasise the need for stability at all costs. His likely replacement, Xi Jinping, is also seen as a safety-first compromiser.
They will also have to bear in mind the influence of former president Jiang Zemin and military leaders.
Jean-Pierre Cabestan, professor of political science at Hong Kong University, said reformers are on the offensive, which might ease the search for a solution to Chen’s case. But he warned that the authorities are risk-averse and will not gamble with anything that might disrupt the transition of power.
“Chen Guangcheng’s flight occurs at a very delicate moment not only because of the Bo Xilai crisis but also the upcoming 18th party congress and more importantly because the party leadership is obviously divided about many substantive economic and political issues,” said Cabestan. “In the post-Arab spring, Bo Xilali crisis, not only Zhou Yongkang but the whole leadership have become more risk-adverse than ever: they are very much aware of the domino effect of Chen Guangcheng’s release.”
No dominos have fallen yet, but the coming days and weeks look set to be crucial not just for a blind activist, but for the political direction of China.
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大家都来看”九评共产党” ( VCD, 书)!
Let’s find “Nine Commentaries on the Communist Party”(VCD, books)!
快上大纪元声明退出共产党和共产党其它组织(/团/队)，抹去邪恶的印记!
Quit the Evil Chinese Communist Party or its affiliated organizations today!
